Medium term investment strategy of the hottest pap

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Medium term investment strategy of paper and light industry

the main logical idea of this report is that most of the light industry and paper industry segments, whether close to consumption or cyclical, bottomed out in the fourth quarter of 2011 or the first quarter of 2012, but the recovery is relatively slow, and it is difficult to significantly improve their performance in the short term. We believe that furniture and toy companies with brand and channel advantages and downstream packaging companies close to consumption have higher growth and more stable profitability, and give the light industry an overweight rating; In view of the poor supply relationship and general growth of the paper industry, the paper industry is rated neutral

papermaking: the bottom and sent a fax or e-mail to SAMPE Beijing Branch before April 15, 2014. Now, the recovery is still slow. Due to the impact of insufficient demand caused by the tightening of macro and consumption lines, its own large capacity is also an important reason for the downturn in the past 11 years. The fourth quarter of 2011 can be regarded as the bottom of the industry. It began to recover slowly in the first half of 2012, but the recovery will be significantly weaker than that in 2009. In terms of investment strategy, it is recommended to recommend special paper companies with stable demand, production capacity and zero energy release in the air, including Qifeng shares, Hengfeng Paper and Guanhao high tech; Wait for the opportunity to intervene in the mainstream paper when the market is close to the mid-term. If it cannot be explained that its port is occupied by other software or incompatible with the computer system, industrial companies mainly recommend sun paper, Chenming paper, etc

furniture flooring: catalyzed by the old for new policy, the real estate policy is relaxed, and the expected bottom line performance is revealed. The national real estate regulation and control policy has had a negative impact on the sales of the furniture industry, coupled with the poor export situation, the industry performance in the first quarter was lower than expected. The policy of replacing old furniture with new furniture in some areas has a good effect. If it is promoted nationwide, it can become a catalyst for the rise of the industry; The relaxation of real estate policy is expected to appear, and the worst moment of industry performance will pass with the recovery of new housing turnover in the future. Recommend Sophia, the leader of customized wardrobe industry with the most growth. In addition, you can also pay attention to Yihua wood industry, which has vigorously expanded domestic channels and benefited from the recovery of exports

cultural and educational supplies: brand toys lead the broad infant and child market. The export of cultural and educational products companies accounted for a large proportion. Affected by the European debt crisis, the export situation was poor in 11 years. At the beginning of 12, with the improvement of the U.S. economy, the export bottomed out and the recovery momentum began to dawn. After CCTV exposed the toxic toys on March 15, consumers paid more attention to the safety of toys. As the most potential product for infants and children in China, toys of relevant brands will gain more market share in the national rectification industry. Xinghui car model, the leader of car model toy segmentation, is recommended. The company has high barriers, has established multi-channel sales, and has upstream raw materials to ensure its quality and safety

packaging and printing: the weak side of pricing power chooses downstream consumption. The industry is in the middle of the industrial chain and belongs to the weak side of pricing power. Its profitability will be weakened under the poor economic environment and rising costs. We believe that the packaging industry has good growth, and downstream companies that prefer consumption can ensure their growth and profits are relatively stable. It is recommended that Lixing, the leading manufacturer of cosmetics packaging, continue to expand its industrial chain, open new markets, and increase production capacity to solve the bottleneck problem. In addition, you can also pay attention to Yongxin shares and Lipeng shares, which are biased towards consumption in the downstream

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