The hottest copper trend in Shanghai is slightly c

2022-08-06
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The trend of copper in Shanghai is slightly cautious

since the fourth quarter, the copper price has rebounded to 50000 yuan/ton. However, the sweater war has not subsided, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates continuously, the consumption level has declined due to market tightening, China's real estate policy restrictions, the terminal consumption capacity of copper has declined, and the domestic consumption of wires and cables for copper has exceeded 50%. However, there has been no bright spot in the national cable task since this year. Under the interference of various uncertain factors, the market has maintained a skeptical attitude towards the copper price exceeding 50000 yuan/ton, Copper price is under pressure at 50000 yuan/ton. In the absence of bright positive stimulus, copper prices are difficult to get out of the reverse upward market in the short term

the interest rate hike enthusiasm of the Federal Reserve declined, but it still exceeded the 50% probability

after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates for the third time this year in September, the leading indicator of consumer confidence in the United States continued to decline. The latest data showed that consumers' expectations of the current and future conditions were both lower. The University of Michigan consumer confidence index released on November 21 was 97.5 in November, the lowest since August. It is expected to be 98.3 in early November and 98.6 in October. Since the beginning of October, the US stock market has continued to fall, indicating that the US economy may have peaked, mainly because the US Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates, the effect of tax cuts is weakened, and the impact of sweater friction is gradually emerging. Affected by the tightening of financial market conditions and the fading effect of fiscal stimulus, the US economic growth rate will probably slow down in the future

however, the Federal Reserve will usher in a new round of interest rate meeting in December. According to CME's "fedwatch" tool, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to 2. 5% in December The probability of 5% is 65%, which is lower than 9% of 6 on November 16 to obtain new materials that are easier to process than previous composite materials. The Federal Reserve is likely to raise interest rates for the last time in 2018 in December

with the continuation of the interest rate hike cycle, the US economic growth and financial stability will be challenged, especially on the national fiscal issue. According to the report released by the US Treasury on November 13 local time, the US federal government's fiscal deficit in October exceeded US $100billion, a significant increase from US $63billion in the same period last year. The accelerated expansion of the fiscal deficit also makes the ability to resist financial risks decline, affecting financial stability. In the future, the only condition for postponing the interest rate hike may be that the US economy will face three major obstacles: the slowdown of global demand, the fading of fiscal stimulus, and the lagging impact of the interest rate hike on the economy

2018 G20 summit is about to be held, and China and the United States are expected to reach an agreement on the sweater issue

2018 G20 summit will be held in Buenos Aires, the capital of Argentina, from November 30 to December 1. Xinhua quoted Bloomberg News Agency as saying that the U.S. president hopes to reach an agreement with China on the sweater issue at the G20 summit to be held in Argentina at the end of November, and has asked key U.S. officials to start drafting possible provisions. The signal of relaxation comes from the escalating friction of sweaters

trump said earlier that he was looking forward to meeting with leaders again during the neuron adaptive PID algorithm of the G20 summit in Argentina, so that he could have an in-depth discussion on some major issues. It is hoped that both sides will make joint efforts to make full preparations for the meeting. The US side attaches importance to the US China sweater cooperation and is willing to continue to expand exports to China. It is necessary for the economic teams of the two countries to strengthen communication and consultation. Support American enterprises to actively participate in the first China International Import Expo

if the G20 reaches a consensus agreement, it will be a major positive for the commodity, stock market, bond market and foreign exchange market

Futures Copper speculation is cautious, and the supply and demand of spot copper are in a seesaw situation

therefore, this weak signal must be amplified through an amplifier

Shanghai copper remained high throughout the week from November 19 to 23, which was affected by the pessimism of US stocks and, on the whole, US crude oil plummeted. Shanghai copper also showed a rise and fall. In the second half of the week, domestic inventory continued to decline and the international environment stabilized, The copper price also fluctuated at 49500 yuan/ton. However, there is no bright spot in the change of market position. Now the speculators are cautious

according to the SMM spot data, the current stock holders have a strong willingness to support the price during the long order delivery period. However, due to the high disk price at the beginning of the week, the price of Pingshui Copper rose from about 80 yuan/ton to about 120 yuan/ton. The future and present prices rose together, and the market response was flat. However, due to the sharp drop in copper price, the price premium was once raised to yuan/ton by the holders, and the downstream and traders replenished on bargain hunting, resulting in a significant increase in active buying. The transaction was dominated by rare downstream consumer buying. After the copper price rebounded over the weekend, due to the replenishment in the downstream, the market performance was suppressed again, and the supply and demand sides fell back into a seesaw state

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